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2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds: Surprising NASCAR at Sonoma picks, best predictions from proven model

In terms of success at Sonoma Raceway, no team has been as prolific as Hendrick Motorsports, which leads all teams with six victories at the track. The legendary Jeff Gordon notched five of those wins, and another all-time great, Jimmie Johnson, had one. However, the last Hendrick win at Sonoma was in 2010. The green flag for the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 drops at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, and Hendrick drivers Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott will start first and second, respectively. 

The 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Elliott at 3-2. He is also coming off three consecutive top-three finishes, so Elliott could make a strong bid to win for the first time at NASCAR at Sonoma. Before scouring the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in six of the last 12 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. He was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed his lead has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he’s a 50-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch had his best finish of the 2021 season on the Daytona road course, where he placed fourth. He has four top-10 finishes and a second-place showing in his last five starts at Sonoma Raceway. Busch also has placed in the top 10 in six of his last seven Watkins Glen starts, further demonstrating how steady he is on road courses.

Busch also leads the Cup series all-time in average finish (11.1) and average running position (10.1). He is also second-best in quality passes with 362. That statistic indicates even though Busch starts 30th this week, he could eventually surge to the front of the 2021 Save Mart 350 leaderboard.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 6-4, stumbles and doesn’t crack the top three. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup. The 2020 Cup Series Champion ranks fourth in standings this season thanks to a recent surge with five consecutive top-10 finishes.

However, he’s never been to victory lane in the Cup Series at Sonoma Raceway, let alone finished in the top three before. He’s raced it four times before and he has more finishes outside the top 20 (two) than he has inside the top five (one). This year, Elliott’s fourth-place ranking in the Cup Series standings may be an indicator that he’s been more lucky than good as he barely cracks the top 10 in laps led, ranking ninth in that category. 

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Save Mart 350 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in six of the last 12 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.’s win at Martinsville

2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds 

Chase Elliott 3-2
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Brad Keselowski 30-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Matt DiBenedetto 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Ben Rhodes 2500-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1 



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